Predicting revenue from drinking water supply infrastructure in rural Africa
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Prévision des revenus des infrastructures d'approvisionnement en eau potable en Afrique rurale
Mar 2025 ; 12 pages
Ed. Uptime - Oxford
Téléchargeable sous format: PdF
(610 ko)
Site internet: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5d5fc19961d87c00011689d2/t/67f77df5d974f90f93b5f79f/1744272886215/Predictive-model-working-brief-FINAL+%281%29.pdf
Abstract:
Uptime has developed a Revenue Predictive Model (RPM) to estimate user payments for
rural drinking water services in Africa. As a new opportunity to improve sector financing
strategies, this model can support governments and development finance projects to
validate assumptions about expected user payments and possible subsidy requirements.
By leveraging quarterly records representing over 200,000 months of data from Uptime in
11 African countries, we combine observed service data with relevant public datasets in a
machine learning algorithm to estimate annual revenues for rural drinking water handpumps and piped schemes.
Applications include:
1. Validating revenue projections for planned infrastructure investments;
2. Modelling existing infrastructure to determine financial viability or subsidy needs;
3. Modelling rehabilitation strategies against alternative infrastructure portfolios;
4. Projecting climate and demographic changes on infrastructure revenue;
5. Designing results-based contracts or Payment for Results programmes; and
6. Performance benchmarking for rural water services.
This paper outlines the model and its input variables as a basis for collaborative model
application. Details on infrastructure type, characteristics, location and estimated population are straightforward requirements that form the basis of revenue predictions. Available data from existing or planned projects should be able to interact with this model with relative ease.
The RPM provides a standard evaluation framework for large public investments in
rural water infrastructure to improve programme designs and long term drinking water
sustainability. The model can be applied and calibrated for all countries in sub-Saharan
Africa. We invite governments and multi-lateral development banks to share data in the
provided format (Appendix A) to test this model in order to improve revenue assumptions in financing strategies.
Mots clefs: |
accès à l'eau (CI) (DT) (OP) (ope) , contrôle et maintenance des installations (CI) (DT) (OP) (ope) , coûts, prix, tarifs (CI) (DT) (OP) (ope) , distribution d'eau potable (CI) (DT) (OP) (ope) , mode de gestion/gouvernance (CI) (DT) (OP) (ope) , rural (CI) (DT) (OP) (ope) |
Editeur/Diffuseur: |
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Uptime - Oxford - Royaume Uni |
En cas de lien brisé, nous le mentionner à communication@pseau.org